Coronavirus / Covid-19 Global Pandemic

[Jacks Fur Coat]

delta variant seems to be more dangerous than other variants. nsw health website saying there are nearly 4000 active cases with nearly 300 in hospital. that would make it worse than a 1 in 14 chance of going to hospital (not including those who have it and don't know they have it).
there have been 22 deaths so far. there might be about 5000 cases in the current outbreak which would be a death rate of about 1 in 250 but death rates lag behind case numbers so that ratio will narrow.
1 in <250 isn't good but it's less bad if overall case numbers are low. trick is to keep a lid on it until people get vaccinated.

Zac I think thats a bit alarmist , and will only scare people. I know that's what the Government is trying to do, but we need Joe Public to be smarter than that. Think of poor old BB he's scared enough already!

In NSW the mortality rate this is about 0.77%. Bear in mind these are majority elderly and/or with other conditions. And that's notwithstanding the many undiagnosed and untested cases which would lower that % even further. Many more deaths in 2017 (529)and 2019 (312) from flu in NSW...no panic or lockdowns. Life went on. It puts this in perspective. We desperately need common sense here and people back to work, and kiddies back to school. Collateral damage being caused by that is way worse than this latest viral strain. That's the really key point, not stressing about low case numbers etc.

Sure promote the hell out of the vaccines...but don't hold people to ransom or scare them unnecessarily.

[zac]

Zac I think thats a bit alarmist , and will only scare people. I know that's what the Government is trying to do, but we need Joe Public to be smarter than that. Think of poor old BB he's scared enough already!

In NSW the mortality rate this is about 0.77%. Bear in mind these are majority elderly and/or with other conditions. And that's notwithstanding the many undiagnosed and untested cases which would lower that % even further. Many more deaths in 2017 (529)and 2019 (312) from flu in NSW...no panic or lockdowns. Life went on. It puts this in perspective. We desperately need common sense here and people back to work, and kiddies back to school. Collateral damage being caused by that is way worse than this latest viral strain. That's the really key point, not stressing about low case numbers etc.

Sure promote the hell out of the vaccines...but don't hold people to ransom or scare them unnecessarily.

guess we'll have to agree to disagree on it being alarmist! the figures are alarming. if 0.77 is the mortality rate that's one in 150 people who are diagnosed with it dying. if people don't get vaccinated and the virus infects everybody (not going to happen but not an impossibility) then that's 100 thousand dead and the economy locked down for months. more realistically, if people do the wrong thing there will be more deaths and a longer lockdown that is necessary. even if you're v lockdowns, and there's a better case for that than v vaccination, govts are going to enforce lockdowns so opposition is pretty much irrelevant.

but sure, it's a time to think about the situation sensibly without panic. if people do the right thing we'll be out of the death/lockdown scenarios within a few months. i see it like walking on the footpath - you're probably safe if you do the right thing but if you walk onto the road there's a chance you'll die.

bb's fully vaccinated and i don't think his concern is personal - he wants the country to move onto bigger and better things (as do you, but i reckon you're wrong on this one).

[Jacks Fur Coat]

guess we'll have to agree to disagree on it being alarmist! the figures are alarming. if 0.77 is the mortality rate that's one in 150 people who are diagnosed with it dying. if people don't get vaccinated and the virus infects everybody (not going to happen but not an impossibility) then that's 100 thousand dead and the economy locked down for months. more realistically, if people do the wrong thing there will be more deaths and a longer lockdown that is necessary. even if you're v lockdowns, and there's a better case for that than v vaccination, govts are going to enforce lockdowns so opposition is pretty much irrelevant.

but sure, it's a time to think about the situation sensibly without panic. if people do the right thing we'll be out of the death/lockdown scenarios within a few months. i see it like walking on the footpath - you're probably safe if you do the right thing but if you walk onto the road there's a chance you'll die.

bb's fully vaccinated and i don't think his concern is personal - he wants the country to move onto bigger and better things (as do you, but i reckon you're wrong on this one).

We do disagree but fundamentally its about the value of lockdowns. I say that the cure is worse than the disease, you are saying the reverse.

Additionally I think (hope) that governments here will start to change their thinking about lockdowns being the right response. So also disagree that opposition is irrelevant, we shouldn't blithely accept self inflicted harm.

#agreetodisagree

[GT3370]

Zac I think thats a bit alarmist , and will only scare people. I know that's what the Government is trying to do, but we need Joe Public to be smarter than that. Think of poor old BB he's scared enough already!

In NSW the mortality rate this is about 0.77%. Bear in mind these are majority elderly and/or with other conditions. And that's notwithstanding the many undiagnosed and untested cases which would lower that % even further. Many more deaths in 2017 (529)and 2019 (312) from flu in NSW...no panic or lockdowns. Life went on. It puts this in perspective. We desperately need common sense here and people back to work, and kiddies back to school. Collateral damage being caused by that is way worse than this latest viral strain. That's the really key point, not stressing about low case numbers etc.

Sure promote the hell out of the vaccines...but don't hold people to ransom or scare them unnecessarily.

Jack I think you need to remember that that is the death rate with lock down. If we had not the the deaths and cases would match other countries.While I do agree lock downs are unfortunate, I also think without vaccination rates being high as it is with the flu vaccine the they are necessary.

[Random Rooster]

Zac I think thats a bit alarmist , and will only scare people. I know that's what the Government is trying to do, but we need Joe Public to be smarter than that. Think of poor old BB he's scared enough already!

In NSW the mortality rate this is about 0.77%. Bear in mind these are majority elderly and/or with other conditions. And that's notwithstanding the many undiagnosed and untested cases which would lower that % even further. Many more deaths in 2017 (529)and 2019 (312) from flu in NSW...no panic or lockdowns. Life went on. It puts this in perspective. We desperately need common sense here and people back to work, and kiddies back to school. Collateral damage being caused by that is way worse than this latest viral strain. That's the really key point, not stressing about low case numbers etc.

Sure promote the hell out of the vaccines...but don't hold people to ransom or scare them unnecessarily.

Saying that collateral damage is worse than the virus is actually being an alarmist. Suicide rates didn't go up in 2020 (despite what Paul Murray & co blatantly lied about on Sky) , the economy roared back after the first wave of covid was addressed, unemployment levels dropped back to pre pandemic levels, the ASX hit record highs, & the property market went nuts. Now the Reserve Bank has said our economy will withstand this lockdown like it did the first time round.

Comparing deaths by the flu in previous years to deaths from Covid in a country like Australia that lock downed will only give a distorted result. Sweden didn't lockdown during the first wave and lost 14,500 people- we have 2.5 times their population so if we apply the same ratio Australia would have lost 36,500 not 1000. Now some would say 36,500 isn't much out of a 26 million population- but for me thats Australian 35500 families that didn't need to deal with the death of a loved one for the sake of the economy that we have found out didn't need saving.

Personally i got 3 teenage children doing school via the computer. If we were to just open up without having Delta under control i wouldn't let them go to school anyway.

Having said that we should have had close to 80% of the population vaccinated by now. Once that happens then thats the end of lockdowns

[zac]

the other thing is that while lockdowns are bad for the economy you can't compare what happens during a lockdown to what would have happened if there was no virus. you have to compare what happens from a lockdown to what happens to an un-lockdowned economy where the virus runs rampant with more people dying, people not turning up to work or going shopping, calls from some people to lockdown, souths fans roaming the street selling rabbits etc
with vaccinations offering a safe passage out of locked down economies there are sound economic reasons for a lockdown.
but it all comes down to people getting vaccinated ...

[Dr. Voodoo Man]

Lot of experts here it seems.

[Random Rooster]

Lot of experts here it seems.

No mate just ordinary people with opinions. I don't agree with a lot of what Jack said in his post but it doesn't make me right and him wrong- could be the other way around!

[GT3370]

Lot of experts here it seems.

X is an unknown quantity and a spurt is a drip under pressure {expert}

[Jacks Fur Coat]

X is an unknown quantity and a spurt is a drip under pressure {expert}

Now I know why they call Kezza Chant, Jeanette Young, dreamy eyes Sutton in Vic etc...experts!

[Jacks Fur Coat]

the other thing is that while lockdowns are bad for the economy you can't compare what happens during a lockdown to what would have happened if there was no virus. you have to compare what happens from a lockdown to what happens to an un-lockdowned economy where the virus runs rampant with more people dying, people not turning up to work or going shopping, calls from some people to lockdown, souths fans roaming the street selling rabbits etc
with vaccinations offering a safe passage out of locked down economies there are sound economic reasons for a lockdown.
but it all comes down to people getting vaccinated ...

Sound economic reasons for a lockdown? Now that's a first.

I have to admit in all my 57 years I'd never heard of "lockdowns" or been part of one. My guess would be you would only use it in wartime, or if snipers were on the loose in a city or town.

Not for a freakin virus....it beggars belief. Lazy weak opporunistic politicians.

And that's just their best points.

[zac]

Sound economic reasons for a lockdown? Now that's a first.

I have to admit in all my 57 years I'd never heard of "lockdowns" or been part of one. My guess would be you would only use it in wartime, or if snipers were on the loose in a city or town.

Not for a freakin virus....it beggars belief. Lazy weak opporunistic politicians.

And that's just their best points.

last year aus was pretty quick to go into lockdowns when cases came up and yet our economy went well compared to countries which were more reluctant to go into lockdown (but were then forced to go into lockdown and stay in lockdown longer cos they could never get on top of the virus). lockdowns are bad but having a city ravaged by a virus isn't good for business either.
it's a big issue right now and people are doing it tough but with a vaccine available and therefore a light at the end of the tunnel, in a few months lockdowns can be a tool that they don't use anymore. i'm not going to say that the lockdown they've got gets the balance right but as lazy, weak and opportunistic as they are, some form of lockdown seems sensible

[Jacks Fur Coat]

last year aus was pretty quick to go into lockdowns when cases came up and yet our economy went well compared to countries which were more reluctant to go into lockdown (but were then forced to go into lockdown and stay in lockdown longer cos they could never get on top of the virus). lockdowns are bad but having a city ravaged by a virus isn't good for business either.
it's a big issue right now and people are doing it tough but with a vaccine available and therefore a light at the end of the tunnel, in a few months lockdowns can be a tool that they don't use anymore. i'm not going to say that the lockdown they've got gets the balance right but as lazy, weak and opportunistic as they are, some form of lockdown seems sensible

I want to add that it's the broadbrush unthinking lazy lockdowns that are still being imposed that are most upsetting for people.

I.e. whole state lockdowns as in Vic and Qld when they have a handful or less of cases in one location.....Or Glad benching construction workers in outdoor settings....both crazy options.

Maybe...targeted quick nuanced lockdowns can be acceptable and useful...maybe. It's slightly encouraging to hear NSW at least looking at British and Canadian examples of greater freedoms and some risk acceptance. Even with high daily cases.

Also, I am not an anti-vaxxer and have sympathy of course to those who have lost loved ones. It's just greater proportion and perspective we need from our leaders, that is currently lacking.

[Dr. Voodoo Man]

No mate just ordinary people with opinions. I don't agree with a lot of what Jack said in his post but it doesn't make me right and him wrong- could be the other way around!

All I know at this stage is pretty much everyone knows fark all and that includes me. Maybe we will never know. Lies upon lies.

[zac]

I want to add that it's the broadbrush unthinking lazy lockdowns that are still being imposed that are most upsetting for people.

I.e. whole state lockdowns as in Vic and Qld when they have a handful or less of cases in one location.....Or Glad benching construction workers in outdoor settings....both crazy options.

Maybe...targeted quick nuanced lockdowns can be acceptable and useful...maybe. It's slightly encouraging to hear NSW at least looking at British and Canadian examples of greater freedoms and some risk acceptance. Even with high daily cases.

Also, I am not an anti-vaxxer and have sympathy of course to those who have lost loved ones. It's just greater proportion and perspective we need from our leaders, that is currently lacking.

fair enough