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Chuck a lazy $1K on the Chooks @ $151.00
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the smart bet is to find a bookie who will take a bet on us not making the 8 and then outlay some of what you'd make from that on us winning in the first week of the semis if you can find someone to give you that bet. if we do make the semis we will have run into some form and will be more likely to win in week 1 than any odds you'd get now would suggest
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Originally posted by zac View Postthe smart bet is to find a bookie who will take a bet on us not making the 8 and then outlay some of what you'd make from that on us winning in the first week of the semis if you can find someone to give you that bet. if we do make the semis we will have run into some form and will be more likely to win in week 1 than any odds you'd get now would suggest
So say you had $1000 on us not making the 8, to win $110. If we make the 8 you lose $1000. If we don't, you win $110
You want to save by having a bet on us to win in the first week of the finals, if we were to make it.
You've lost $1000 if we do make the 8. Even if you could get $3 on us now to win that first finals game in week 1, which is impossible because bookies don't offer odds on games in 6 weeks time when they don't know who's playing, but just say you could get $3 on the Roosters to win against whoever they play week 1 finals. So their opponents are favorites at around $1.4.
Say you had $700 on the Roosters at $3. Now you've outlaid $1700 total. If the Roosters make the finals and win that first finals game, you win $400. If Roosters either don't make the finals or make the finals and lose week 1, you lose $1590.
The problem is the price of your main anchor bet of Roosters don't make the 8 is $1.11, which is way too short to get any leverage off and have anything to "outlay" on other related outcomes.
A better option is just back us to make the 8 at 7.5
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Originally posted by Batemans Bay Rooster View Post
if we're $7.50 to make the 8, the price of us not making the 8 is $1.10 or $1.11.
So say you had $1000 on us not making the 8, to win $110. If we make the 8 you lose $1000. If we don't, you win $110
You want to save by having a bet on us to win in the first week of the finals, if we were to make it.
You've lost $1000 if we do make the 8. Even if you could get $3 on us now to win that first finals game in week 1, which is impossible because bookies don't offer odds on games in 6 weeks time when they don't know who's playing, but just say you could get $3 on the Roosters to win against whoever they play week 1 finals. So their opponents are favorites at around $1.4.
Say you had $700 on the Roosters at $3. Now you've outlaid $1700 total. If the Roosters make the finals and win that first finals game, you win $400. If Roosters either don't make the finals or make the finals and lose week 1, you lose $1590.
The problem is the price of your main anchor bet of Roosters don't make the 8 is $1.11, which is way too short to get any leverage off and have anything to "outlay" on other related outcomes.
A better option is just back us to make the 8 at 7.5
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