Completion rate expectations

[RoosterBooster]

Not sure if anyone watched Fox’s post game show , but it was raised that the Roosters have one of the worst completion rates in the league. Cooper Cronk said Robbo does not mind as he focuses on execution over completion percentage.

Not sure how I feel about this? It makes sense in theory, I guess our problem is therefore lack of execution?

What does everyone think?

[eddie]

Like any stat it can be misleading.
A team with a higher completion rate might come up with poor last tackle options. I'd rather cop the odd error and get a couple of repeat sets.

[takethe 2]

I think that playing the percentages against average teams works out ok. High completion rates are a good thing against teams like the dragons or the tigers as the more you hold the ball, the greater chance you have to put on some points.

but against the top teams, they can compete easily against that type of approach. You need to chance your arm, play what’s is front of you, a bit unpredictable to break a game open. Above all that though, your defence has to be good enough to cover errors etc…

[milanja]

Dolphins completed at almost 90% last night, but didn’t really look threatening, sometimes completing ant an high % and not taking a chance, doesn’t really get you far on the scoreboard.

[Headless Chook]

A couple of years ago the Bulldogs had the highest completionm rate in the competition and finished last. It's more about what you do with the ball and where you're making your mistakes.

[King Salvo]

Depends on what type of game style you play - Penrith's grind game relies on high set completions for them to dominate yardage and field position - 83% set completion rate so far in 2023.

Bronco's on the other hand are 8th in set completions in 2023 - 77%

Roosters as per below are not known for high set completions - highest position for set completions is 6th in 2013

Penrith's completion rates

2023 - 83% (1) - so far
2022 - 81% (1)
2021 - 79% (4) - 1st was 80%
2020 - 80% (1)

Roosters completion rates

2023 - 75 % (17) - so far
2022 - 75% (14)
2021 - 75% (16)
2020 - 77% (13)

Roosters - 2013 to 2019

* 2019 - 75% (14)
* 2018 - 76% (13)
2017 - 75% (15)
2016 - 73% (15)
2015 - 74% (12)
2014 - 72% (14)
* 2013 - 75% (6)

* Premiership years

[elo]

Not sure if anyone watched Fox’s post game show , but it was raised that the Roosters have one of the worst completion rates in the league. Cooper Cronk said Robbo does not mind as he focuses on execution over completion percentage.

Not sure how I feel about this? It makes sense in theory, I guess our problem is therefore lack of execution?

What does everyone think?

The rule changes since 2020 make it far more beneficial to be in possession over out of it, for me the game has been imbalanced ever since these rules changes as there is far less reward for being an effective out of possession aka defensive team. Moments of class then stone wall defending just isn't a reliable winning formula anymore, referees will relentlessly penalize and six again for at times mysterious reasons - they must keep the "attacking" football flowing and scoreboard ticking over in PVL ball.

I would much prefer if Robbo would adapt to the rules in play over his Roosters Way nonsense, the chances of this happening however are close to nil because he believes his ways are still successful under the current rule set - the evidence would say otherwise.

[King Salvo]

The rule changes since 2020 make it far more beneficial to be in possession over out of it, for me the game has been imbalanced ever since these rules changes as there is far less reward for being an effective out of possession aka defensive team. Moments of class then stone wall defending just isn't a reliable winning formula anymore, referees will relentlessly penalize and six again for at times mysterious reasons - they must keep the "attacking" football flowing and scoreboard ticking over in PVL ball.

I would much prefer if Robbo would adapt to the rules in play over his Roosters Way nonsense, the chances of this happening however are close to nil because he believes his ways are still successful under the current rule set - the evidence would say otherwise.

Moments of class and stonewall defending seems to work for Penrith though

Way too much is made of set restarts

This round - conceded

Penrith 4 vs Manly 3
Sharks 5 vs Titans 1
Brisbane 2 vs Eels 4
Souths 1 vs Dragons 1
Tigers 4 vs Warriors 3
Roosters 1 vs Dolphins 2

[Rooster_6]

The rule changes since 2020 make it far more beneficial to be in possession over out of it, for me the game has been imbalanced ever since these rules changes as there is far less reward for being an effective out of possession aka defensive team. Moments of class then stone wall defending just isn't a reliable winning formula anymore, referees will relentlessly penalize and six again for at times mysterious reasons - they must keep the "attacking" football flowing and scoreboard ticking over in PVL ball.

I would much prefer if Robbo would adapt to the rules in play over his Roosters Way nonsense, the chances of this happening however are close to nil because he believes his ways are still successful under the current rule set - the evidence would say otherwise.

The best defensive side in 2021 and 2022 won the competition. What makes you think there isn’t reward for being an effective defensive team?

[Rooster89]

No point having the worst completion rate AND the worst attack in the comp.

[elo]

The best defensive side in 2021 and 2022 won the competition. What makes you think there isn’t reward for being an effective defensive team?

They are not a defensive team at all, they are the top possession team so they do far LESS defending - it's ridiculous the amount of sets they have the ball each game, it was over 50 against the Sharks a few weeks back, and another 47 last week against Melbourne.

The top 4 possession teams have been Penrith, Parra, Souths and Melbourne (I haven't looked over the data for the Broncos this season) since the rule changes and lets be honest they are the only 4 teams they have been close to winning the title since the rules have changed, the game is heavily skewed toward possession. We were winning comps in the high 40%'s possession, Penrith have been 50+ for each of theirs, usually around 53-54% from memory.

You must have a lot of possession now or you are ****ed, the data is pretty clear on this yet still we stick to high error football (and a lot in our own half) which is just death.

[Rooster_6]

They are not a defensive team at all, they are the top possession team so they do far LESS defending - it's ridiculous the amount of sets they have the ball each game, it was over 50 against the Sharks a few weeks back, and another 47 last week against Melbourne.

The top 4 possession teams have been Penrith, Parra, Souths and Melbourne (I haven't looked over the data for the Broncos this season) since the rule changes and lets be honest they are the only 4 teams they have been close to winning the title since the rules have changed, the game is heavily skewed toward possession. We were winning comps in the high 40%'s possession, Penrith have been 50+ for each of theirs, usually around 53-54% from memory.

You must have a lot of possession now or you are ****ed, the data is pretty clear on this yet still we stick to high error football (and a lot in our own half) which is just death.

I’m not debating whether they are a heavy possession side, just debating your argument that the game has become so imbalanced to the point where it’s less beneficial for good defensive sides. All evidence still suggests you’re not achieving anything in the game without great defence.

This may not have been true in 2021 but in 2022 & 2023 the game has gone back to some level of normality. I don’t think the game is as one sided to attacking sides as you are making out.

And I would argue Robinson thrived in 2021 with the rule changes, to end up 5th with the squad he had at his disposal that year due to injuries was a great achievement.

NRL’s statistical provider also measures possession differently to how they used to which is why you’re starting to see sides post higher possession % numbers.

[Bates]

It's all relative.

Pointless playing low risk footy, completing at 98% and failing to score enough points to win a game.

We play high risk footy but our execution has been poor. It's counter productive winding back the risk level if it doesn't suit your playing system.

[Qld Chook]

No point having the worst completion rate AND the worst attack in the comp.

This! I can cop poor completions if our attack is threatening. However this has not been the case this year, it’s been clunky, slow and disconnected therefore we need higher completions.

[OMR]

It’s where you chance your arm and May cause the error. Inside the opposition half trying to score is ok by me, however throwing speculative passes inside your 30 and causing errors is unforgivable.