Can we make the 8?

[ism22]

Currently sitting in 13th on 8 points. Top of the table is on 20 points and 8th place is 12 points.

3 Teams are on 10 and we have beaten 2 of those 3 teams already this season. We basically need to jump the Dogs (12 pts), Knights (10 pts), Bunnies (10 pts), Eels (10 pts) and Pamfers (8 points.)

If we lose then the bottom 3 teams can easily jump us, and the season will just get tougher. Say the following happens next week though:
MAN vs BRI (Manly win)
BUL vs GCT (Titans win, but narrowly)
NEW vs PAR (Knights win by a LOT)
NQ vs SYD (Roosters have a solid 15+ pt win)
MEL vs CRO (Storm win)
STG vs WES (Dragons win)
PEN vs SOU (Pemriff win by 1 point)
Bye = CAN/NZW... Has no real gauge on things.

We would then be sitting on 11th. Next round:
PAR vs STG (Parra get thumped)
CRO vs BRI (Cronulla get thumped)
GCT vs PEN (draw)
SYD vs NZW (Roosters win by 10+)
BUL vs MAN (Manly win)
CAN vs NQ (Canberra win)
SOU vs MEL (Storm win)
WES vs NEW (Newcastle win narrowly)

We're still only 10th (although we'll be on the same points as #8.) Beat the storm the next week and we COULD be in the 8.

Questions:
- Who thinks we can still make the 8?
- How likely/possible are most of the above results?
- Will another 2 losses over these rounds basically guarantee us a spot well below the 8?

Edit: I get really scared when we're this low! If we win then we're not even guaranteed to climb the ladder... lose and we just drop down lower... I hate it when wins mean SFA and we really need a string of 3/4 wins in order to set ourselves straight. Tough times, but I'm still hopeful after Sunday's performance.

[Guest]

We have no chance in my opinion

[supermario]

well, it is still in our hands to make the 8, when it becomes a "mathematical" chance, then you can start planning holidays in September.

ATM, we can still make it if we continue to improve.

[rooster_booster]

look at this way

above
7th WESTS (DRAGONS KNIGHTS WARRIORS STORM) Probably the hardest schedule of all the teams. Have been off the boil recently, and without the bye could easily walk away on a 4 game slide.
8th DOGS (TITANS SEA EAGLES BYE SHARKS) Their last two weeks won't help them. Will see how they come out of this period espescially after losing the likes of Tolman, Ennis. Should get 6 points though
9th KNIGHTS (EELS WESTS BYE PANTHERS) They got beaten by our humble team yesterday, haven't lost a great deal over this period. Will struggle.
10th RABBITS (PANTHERS STORM BYE TITANS) Their season is over, and after another couple of losses they'll play like it too. Might get lucky over 1 or even 2 of these teams, but definitely aren't a threat moving towards September.
11th EELS (KNIGHTS DRAGONS BYE SEA EAGLES) I think tonights performance was a reflection on how BAD Cronulla were, not how good Parra are, arguably the most difficult draw over the next month. They will be lucky to come away with 4 points.
12th PANTHERS (RABBITS TITANS BYE KNIGHTS) Very kind month for Penrith. I think they'll take 6 points over this period and soon after drop off due to injuries and the shine of gus wearing off.

US (COWBOYS, WARRIORS, STORM, BYE) If we win this weekend we could easily walk away with 6 points. NZ are a bit of a bogey team for us and have an unfair advantage over origin period, but if we lose this weekend I'm afraid we'll only get the bye points.

below
14th TITANS (DOGS PANTHERS DRAGONS SOUTHS) we lost to them recently, but they severely look like they have nothing this season. I don't think they'll threaten the 8 any time soon. Maybe 2 points
15th SHARKS (STORM, BRONCS, BYE, DOGS) After tonights performance, theyll be lucky to beat the bye. They are gooone without Gal IMO.
16th RAIDERS (bye, NQL, BRO, bye) sitting last, but after 2 straight wins, a few byes coming up and the QLD teams during the Origin period could easily go 12 points straight. On the up

The main thing I noticed was how much the bottom half are playing each other over this period. If a team can string a couple together, and I think 2 will. They will make the 8. On the other side of the coin, the top 6 looks pretty set. The only questions I have are: Will NQL drop off after origin? Will the Warriors start playing more inconsistent footy? Or will the Broncos continue to fall over the coming weeks, and will Lockyer be able to steady them in his final season?

There is an opportunity to be had and I think over the next month, the picture of the season will become much clearer. We have alot of players out, but hell, if the boys get an ounce of confidence. We could be in the mix

[Guest]

Two words will decide our fate.

Todd Carney.

He stays healthy and dry, we've got a bloody chance. He goes down, we go down.

It's like Freddy all over again.

I remember watching games while Fittler was playing that we were cruising in and then Gould would rest him with 15 or 10 go and we'd collapse in a heap and Fittler would have to come back on to save our arses.

[alex0063]

We Will Finish 8th Dogs will miss out

[Guest]

We are not yet half way through the season. If we can build some confidence off the weekend then we can definitely make the eight.

I think a win against North Queensland would be what we need to kick that confidence off. A tough ask but huge for our season if we can do it.

[Vasco]

This week's game is our toughest of the season.

They have been much more consistent this year and their key players are on fire.

We then play our bogey team, The Warriors. We could easily lose both and be officially gone for the season.

[melon....]

As Ive been saying all year....we will make the top 8 in 2011.

We have 2 road blocks at the moment. Anasta and Minichiello. FPN is also on notice. But Anasta and Mini - take them out of the picture and we will be a better side.

[elo]

Can we? Yes.

Will we? Unlikely.

[Guest]

Mathematically possible

attitudinally impossible

[Guest]

massive confidence and attitude problems the only thing to stop us. if we stay in touch we are always a good chance. i agree alot will hinge on TC but 2nd game back after injury and that whole messy off field situation and hes looking surprisingly good. if he can stay fit and continue to improve i think the whole team will, even anasta...

[Guest]

Even Canberra who's coming last can make the 8...mathematically it is possible...where not even at the halfway mark yet...if they win the majority of their games we'll make it...if not we'll miss out...

[Guest]

Even Canberra who's coming last can make the 8...mathematically it is possible...where not even at the halfway mark yet...if they win the majority of their games we'll make it...if not we'll miss out...

The equivalent of "the team that scores the most points will win" which is exactly what it will come down to.

[Spirit of 66]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsV2O4fCgjk