penalties

[Tommy Smith]

These stats are compelling. I think I saw rooster radio has picked them up as has Facebook. Doing a great job mate.

Ive been thinking and what could make these stats more compelling (I’ve worked around information and visualising information) is the same chart for penalties awarded.
as has been pointed out, its the penalties we don’t receive that will prove either way ref bias.

tommy do you think you’d have the time to do this?
As is common saying, the proof is in the data or the data doesn’t lie

The figures I've uploaded are crude af because they were done in memo on my phone lol

Taken separately, the pens received & conceded stats aren't as egregious. It's only when you combine them - because we finish last in both (lol) - does the overall discrepancy become apparent.

And again, on their own there's probably not enough data to plot it on a continuum as the discrepancies aren't as flagrant.

Nonetheless here are a couple of penalty received stats:

The highest we've finished between 2008-2018 for pens received in any given season is 8th.

So that's essentially like flipping a coin and it coming out tails 11 times in a row... because these are pens RECEIVED. Nothing to do with our discipline.

So logically you should see a fairly even spread across the board. But not for us (or the Dogs tbh).

So between 2008-2018 we are last for average league position for pens received and also for average pens received per season. They correlate fairly well as you can imagine.

[The Axe]

Thanks Tommy.
It tells a story in that over 10 years on average the top team receives a touch over more penalty per match than the least favoured. There are data analysts (everyone is a data scientist these days) who may display the small gaps as standard deviation from norm or by percentage.

Data guys or quants would look at the odds given the period the period of analysis and the fact clubs play every team including the 2nd most favoured.

sorry this is above my limited maths. Usually I’d work with quant to prove the argument, then articulate the case.

hyperthetically No matter how displayed if the refs boss approached any club ceo and said for the next 10 years on average I’ll award you on avg 1 more penalty than the least awarded club, the ceo would grab that. Not saying this happens.

probably I’m with you and more in the Maxy walker space, this could be a tougher argument as stand alone.

are there any stats guys, quants, data scientists on here who could step in?

[stsae]

You nailed it the last time when you talked about the tall poppy syndrome. We're known as the latte sippers from the affluent Eastern Suburbs. Subconsciously I'm sure this plays a role in influencing the referees; who hate us I'm sure.

I'm not a conpsiracy theorist either but the stats do not lie. Something has clearly been amiss for a long time now.

This.

I hear it every day from blokes I grew up with in Bondi.

Of course they don’t support Easts.

Carnts.

[ROC181]

But ‘We don’t play for Penalties’ so why can we expect to get any in our favour while those teams that do get them? Let’s put it this way, maybe if you don’t highlight it to a ref that you’re being held down or got a forearm on the face, they won’t do anything. Whilst I’d hate to see our players diving to get a penalty, it shits me how others get away with it BUT it is what it is. The only one in our team that seems to be playing for a penalty now and then is Fergo as he’s bringing the ball out of our 10, which is great because we probably needed it. If we want to be the good guys then accept the call otherwise get into that street fight.