Originally posted by melon....
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No. It is the diversion of resources from agriculture and manufacturing to the mining boom, and massive migrant intake specifically for the mining boom, that will eventually lead to massive unemployment when the boom busts.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226013741958
McKibbin warns our export prices are likely to fall as the global expansion of mining capacity catches up with Chinese demand and as the commodity bubble pops. At the same time, rising global inflation would push up import prices, push down the dollar, feed domestic cost-of-living pressures and challenge the Reserve Bank's 2-3 per cent inflation target amid an ongoing mining investment boom. Our terms of trade could reverse sharply as export prices fall and import prices rise.
And rising global interest rates in response to higher inflation would hit credit-inflated asset prices that are yet to fully correct, perhaps including Australian house prices. "As interest rates go up, a whole bunch of assets and balance sheets get crunched, so I am not optimistic it will work out well," McKibbin says.
If that happens, Australia will wish that both the Howard-Costello and Rudd-Gillard governments had saved some of our terms of trade bounty into a budget reserve fund, partly invested offshore as a hedge against our terms of trade bubble. Australia similarly will regret Julia Gillard's job market re-regulation, which will make it harder for the Reserve Bank to keep the new global inflation shock at bay.
And rising global interest rates in response to higher inflation would hit credit-inflated asset prices that are yet to fully correct, perhaps including Australian house prices. "As interest rates go up, a whole bunch of assets and balance sheets get crunched, so I am not optimistic it will work out well," McKibbin says.
If that happens, Australia will wish that both the Howard-Costello and Rudd-Gillard governments had saved some of our terms of trade bounty into a budget reserve fund, partly invested offshore as a hedge against our terms of trade bubble. Australia similarly will regret Julia Gillard's job market re-regulation, which will make it harder for the Reserve Bank to keep the new global inflation shock at bay.
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